Patch 7.1 and the Blood of Sargeras Trader: How to profit

Patch 7.1 is coming right around the corner, bringing with it a Vendor that will take your Blood of Sargeras in exchange for various crafting reagents. This will likely have a large effect on the economy of WoW.

The effects will have two parts:

  1. The total amount of reagents available will increase, driving prices down
  2. The relative amount of reagents will change, making more expensive reagents much cheaper relative to more robustly priced things

If you look up professions on any forums at the moment an extremely common theme is that herbs and herb-based consumables are stupidly expensive. Many people believe the trader will save them from gold hell when raiding. Some goblins believe the bottom will fall out of all markets.

I believe that prices will go down, obviously, as supply will rise. It will have an effect on profit margins as cheaper mats lower the barrier to entry, but the main barrier for crafting is bothering to spend time, so professions will still be highly profitable.

Now, what you should be interested is how to prepare for the patch. What should you dump (probably everything), and what should we be buying on patch day. Mispricing is bound to happen on Tuesday/wednesday, and I will be preparing accordingly.

To analyze this i looked at the mats you can buy from the vendor. I then took the EU Median price for all of the mats to find the value of a BoS depending on what you spend it on. At current prices by far the most profitable way to spend your BoS on the trader is Foxflower and Fjarnskaggl. The value for one BoS for these to materials is almost 30% higher than for Starlight Rose. As far as I can see from forum threads, Starlight Roses are the object of a large amount of ire based on flask and potion prices. People will therefore very likely overbuy roses with their bloods.

This leads to two simple tips:

Tip 1: Use your bloods on Foxflower/Fjarnskaggl

Tip 2: Buy Starlight roses on patch day, they are likely to be underpriced

 

Current average value of 1 BoS is 187.5 gold on EU. In reality people won’t be buying Lean Shanks or whatever useless cheap shit is at the bottom of the price range¬†with the bloods. If we just look at the top 25% of items in terms of value, a BoS is worth on average 450 gold. If players actually have 400+ of these, at current prices the value of this is around 180k. This is not sustainable and prices will tank extremely hard on patch day as the supply shock will be LARGE. I expect prices to fall atleast down to the average BoS value at current prices, probably lower, and then climb slightly after a week or two as supply starts dropping off and demand starts increasing again as we get towards the release of Trial of Valor.

blood-values

Here’s my spreadsheet if you want to run the numbers on your specific server to figure out what is the best use of your bloods or what is most likely to tank hardest in price. I ran the numbers on just the top half and top 25% of items in separate tabs so you can see how we would expect the price to change if we assume the average value stays the same.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-yq_iEK5c98m9pAHgtLl1xSIxRLKm4_VWpxAmNJUyQE/edit?usp=sharing

There are in addition to this some notable inefficiencies in the trader. As my post here shows: Felslate has about 3,5 times the amount of rares per prospect that leystone has, but you get 1 felslate for 2 leystone at the BoS trader, so don’t ever buy leystone from the trader, it’s strictly worse than felslate.

What are you guys planning to do for patch day?

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