In this post I will do some math to try to figure out how much expulsom it makes sense to craft in preparation for 8.2. If you want to craft the new recipes that need expulsom you will want to be ready with the expulsom ahead of time as otherwise you will have to spend too much time.
Time is money
When the new recipes come out there will be a race to get the items on the AH as fast as possible. Competition will of course quickly develop and profit margins will most likely not be exorbitant, but we can expect them to be high. Demand will most likely be fairly strong for the new recipes as players rush to get the best gear, consumables and enchants that money can buy. If you don’t have enough expulsom stocked, you will run dryand have to spend time crafting that rather than reposting the new recipes.
Which recipes need expulsom
Obviously all the new Notorious combatant gear requires expulsom. The required amounts are all completely similar to the quantities needed for Sinister combatant gear. This means you will need expulsom for each of the armor professions.
Outside of the new notorious combatant gear the only relevant goldmaking recipe that requires expulsom is the new Inscription item level 400 trinkets.
Should you stock ahead of time
Stocking only makes sense if you have a decent amount of gold. The new materials will be a major bottleneck, you have to be rich enough to buy volumes of the new mats. Otherwise it is pointless. This will also impact how much you should stock up.
Back in Legion the region market price for the new ore Stabilized at 50 gold for the first two months of Argus. At that point a token was about 240k. For the first two weeks the price was at 100 gold though, and this is when the largest profits can be made. If we assume that a token represents roughly the same amount of value now then an estimate for the price of the new Osmenite ore would be about 80 gold. The combatant items require up to 25 Osmenite ore. So that would put the cost from 800-2000 for one item for the Osmenite. Obviously some realms will have prices higher than this, and this method is HIGHLY uncertain for any realm.
You will want enough for 5 of each item type if you really want to go in, which would be in the 50-200k range. So you need to be close to this level of gold for it to make sense
How much expulsom should you stock
On average the Notorious gear requires 3 expulsom each. You want to stock up at least 5 of each on day one to get a good spread of stat combinations and you want to restock as soon as they sell. Sale rates will be REALLY high for the first week, much higher than for sinister combatant gear right now.
The armor professions have the following recipe counts which gives the Expulsom amount you want in the rightmost column, assuming you have rank 1 recipes.
If you want to have enough for the first month I would go up to 20 of each item as a nice baseline, that would put you at a total of 2 260 Expulsom. To craft that you need to scrap roughly 15 000 Tidespray Bracers. That’s a lot of work. Obviously you don’t really need 20 at day one, but selling 20 of each is not much of a stretch for an active goblin.
Time saved on day 1
Obviously you won’t save any time overall by doing it now, but you will save time on patch day. This will let you craft away rather than waiting for your expulsom crafting to finish before you post stuff to the auction house. You need to work really hard to overstock though as scrapping 15 000 bracers won’t happen on accident.
Good luck guys!